The Democratic Republic of the Congo’s (DRC’s) government said yesterday the number of confirmed Ebola cases has risen to 598, with 115 deaths. All cases in the DRC are from Ituri, North Kivu, and South Kivu provinces.
The case-fatality rate of the DRC outbreak now stands at 19.2%. Almost 300 patients (297) are currently being treated in Ebola facilities for their infections, and 22 people have recovered.
A rapid risk assessment published yesterday by the World Health Organization (WHO) said the risk of transmission in DRC is very high and the risk in Uganda and other countries bordering DRC is high. The outbreak is being caused by the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, which has no treatment or vaccines.
Since June 1, the outbreak as expanded considerably in the DRC, with reported affected health zones increasing from 16 to 25.
“The increase in the number of confirmed cases reflects both ongoing transmission and improvements in case detection through expanded testing and intensified contact tracing activities,” the WHO said.
US officials want European countries to ban travelers
In related news, the Trump administration is asking European countries to impose travel restrictions on people who have recently been in Central African countries affected by the Ebola outbreak to prevent any potential spread of the disease during the World Cup, which will start tomorrow in the United States.
Belgium has rejected that demand, and the European Commission (EC) said there was no evidence any new border measures would help prevent the spread of the virus.
An EC official said, “The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control currently assesses the risk to people in Europe as very low. At this stage, exit screening in the region is deemed sufficient; there is no evidence that additional measures are needed upon entry,” according to Reuters.
As many as 1,300 cases?
Finally, in The Lancet of Infectious Diseases yesterday, an international team of experts estimates the Ebola outbreak in the DRC could be as large as 1,354 cases. The scientists reached that number after conducting two scenario-based experiments.
In the first scenario, the authors assumed a case-fatality rate of 33%, and an assumption that 30% of suspected and confirmed deaths are due to Ebola virus disease. In that scenario, the outbreak would have been 1,164 cases on May 27.
The second scenario involved predictions based on travel, province size (population), and a 10-day doubling period, resulting in 1,354 cases by May 27.
“These findings highlight considerable knowledge gaps in the current outbreak and point to possibly substantially undetected transmission of Bundibugyo virus disease in the east of the Democratic Republic of the Congo,” the authors wrote.
