COVID vaccines may have saved 19,000 lives in under a year in California
A modeling study estimates that COVID-19 vaccination prevented more than 1.5 million infections, 72,000 hospitalizations, and 19,000 deaths in the first 10 months of vaccination in California, according to a study published late last week in JAMA Network Open.
University of California researchers created a statistical model using person-level data from the California Department of Public Health to estimate COVID-19 cases that would have occurred if vaccination hadn't been widely available from Nov 29, 2020, to Oct 16, 2021. The study period included the Delta, but not the Omicron, variant surge.
During the study period, 3,276,260 COVID-19 cases, 240,718 hospitalizations, and 70,406 deaths occurred, and 164,680 eligible residents (aged 12 and older) received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine, for a vaccination rate of 79.5%. Roughly 57% of vaccinees received the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, while 36% received Moderna, and 7% received Johnson & Johnson.
"Both risk of hospitalization and risk of death varied over time and across age groups and was highest in the population aged 65 years or older (21.6% of reported cases resulted in hospitalization and 10.8% of reported cases resulted in death)," the study authors wrote.
According to the model, COVID-19 vaccination prevented 1,523,500 infections (95% prediction interval [PI], 976,800 to 2,230,800), corresponding to a 72% (95% PI, 53% to 91%) relative reduction. Vaccination also averted an estimated 72,930 hospitalizations (95% PI, 53,250 to 99,160) and 19,430 deaths (95% PI, 14,840 to 26,230).
The authors said that the estimates are likely a lower bound and that the results may be generalizable to the rest of the United States.
"The primary model and alternative model estimated that more than 65% to 90% of averted COVID-19 cases occurred after the Delta variant became the prominent variant of SARS-CoV-2 circulating in California, with similar estimates of averted hospitalizations and deaths," they wrote. "The value of vaccination is likely to be larger with the emergence of more transmissible variants, such as the Omicron variant."
Apr 22 JAMA Netw Open study
More evidence COVID-19 in pregnancy can lead to severe outcomes
More evidence that pregnant women with COVID-19 have more severe outcomes than non-pregnant peers was presented at this year's European Congress of Clinical Microbiology & Infectious Diseases (ECCMID). The research also showed even one dose of vaccine was protective against hospitalization for COVID-19.
The study, conducted by researchers at the University of Toronto, included data from 13,600 women from Ontario's Case and Contact Management database, and matched every pregnant woman with 5 non-pregnant women as time-matched controls to account for different circulating strains and vaccine availability. Case-patients were included from Mar 6, 2020 through Jan 4, 2022.
The researchers adjusted outcomes for age, other illnesses, healthcare worker status, vaccination, and infecting variant. Though pregnant women were half as likely as non-pregnant peers to contract COVID-19, they were five times as likely to be admitted to hospital with COVID-19 compared to their non-pregnant peers, and were more than six times as likely to require treatment in intensive care.
Of note, the findings also indicate that all women were half as likely to be hospitalized after just one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, and even less likely with two or more doses, the authors said.
"These findings suggest that in otherwise healthy women, pregnancy itself seems to be a factor that increases illness severity, while among women with comorbidities it becomes one of several factors that augment risk," said Kiera Murison, PhD, a lead researcher on the study, in an ECCMID press release. "Our findings underscore the need for clear accurate information to reassure pregnant women and tackle concerns about COVID-19 vaccine safety."
Apr 24 ECCMID abstract and press release
Avian flu strikes more poultry in 4 states
Four states reported more highly pathogenic avian flu outbreaks in poultry, including four more in Minnesota, where the virus has hit turkey producers especially hard.
Minnesota's latest outbreaks all involved turkey farms and lift the state's outbreak total to 54, with a loss of 2.46 million birds so far, according to an update from the Minnesota Board of Animal Health (MBAH).
Meanwhile, an update from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) notes outbreaks in three other states. North Dakota reported two more outbreaks, one at a turkey producer in Richland County housing 27,500 birds and the other at a backyard facility in Renville County. The state has now reported 13 outbreaks. Also, Wisconsin reported one more outbreak, its eighth, which struck a backyard flock of 40 birds in Polk County.
Elsewhere, the virus struck another commercial farm in Pennsylvania's Lancaster County, this time a broiler facility housing more than 50,000 birds. The state has now reported four outbreaks, all at commercial farms in Lancaster County.
The outbreaks are part of ongoing activity involving the Eurasian H5N1 strain, which has spread to poultry in 29 states and led to the loss of 31.36 million birds.
MBAH update
USDA APHIS poultry outbreak page
WHO says more pediatric hepatitis cases have been identified
The World Health Organization (WHO) over the weekend posted a new update on unexplained acute hepatitis in children. More countries have detected cases, and the WHO suggested that a possible link to adenovirus infections does not explain the severity of the illnesses.
So far at least 169 children in 11 countries have been diagnosed as having acute hepatitis of unknown etiology. Seventeen children have required liver transplants, and one child has died. Cases have been reported in countries across Europe, the United States, and Israel, with the United Kingdom reporting the most cases (114).
Most case-patients do not present with a fever, and instead report gastrointestinal symptoms including abdominal pain, diarrhea and vomiting, and increased levels of liver enzymes. Tests for hepatitis viruses A, B, C, D and E are negative.
"Adenovirus has been detected in at least 74 cases, and of the number of cases with information on molecular testing, 18 have been identified as F type 41. SARS-CoV-2 was identified in 20 cases of those that were tested. Furthermore, 19 were detected with a SARS-CoV-2 and adenovirus co-infection," the WHO said.
Though researchers around the world are exploring the link between the hepatitis cases and adenoviruses, the WHO said infection with adenovirus type 41, the implicated adenovirus type, has not previously been linked to such a clinical presentation. Adenovirus type 41 typically presents as diarrhea, vomiting, and fever, often accompanied by respiratory symptoms, the WHO said.
Adenovirus type 41 has not been known to cause hepatitis in previously healthy children.
Apr 23 WHO report