Many older adults who died of COVID weren’t close to death before infection, study suggests

News brief

Transporting COVID dead to morgue — *DinoGeromella / iStock*

About 28% of older people in England who died of COVID-19 in the first 2.5 years of the pandemic would likely, if uninfected, have lived at least another five years, a new model-based analysis estimates.

Researchers from the government’s Office for Health Improvement and Disparities in London led the study, which was published late last week in PLOS One. The team used linked health data from March 2020 to September 2022 to estimate the survival of nearly 16 million English people aged 65 years and older had they not contracted COVID-19.

“Critics of the pandemic response have suggested that those that died were mostly very vulnerable and close to death,” they noted. “If this were true, the economic impact of measures to control the pandemic could not be justified in terms of any benefits in controlling mortality.”

This study, they said, differed from previous research on COVID-19 excess mortality in that it considered factors such as underlying illnesses, vaccination status, and pandemic wave.

COVID cut life expectancy by 4 to 5 years

Women and men would probably have lived another 4.8 (interquartile range [IQR, 1.5 to 16) years and 4.4(IQR, 1.4 to 12.6) years, respectively, had they not contracted COVID-19. The survival difference was greatest in those aged 65 to 69 (median, 14.4 years [IQR, 0.5 to 38.8] for women and 9.9 years [IQR, 1.1 to 26.2] for men) and during the second pandemic wave (September 2020 to March 2021).

In future pandemics, real-time modelling of displacement would be helpful in assessing the mortality impact of the pandemic.

“We estimate that 23.5% of deaths aged 65 and over would not have been expected to survive more than one year,” the researchers wrote. “However, 28% would have been expected to have survived for 5 years or more had they not had the disease.”

“Life expectancy of those who died with COVID-19 was substantial and, based on our analysis of vulnerability, most of those who died at ages 65 and over are unlikely to have been close to death,” they added. “In future pandemics, real-time modelling of displacement would be helpful in assessing the mortality impact of the pandemic.”

Mental imagery related to vaccines may influence pregnant women’s uptake

News brief

Mary Van Beusekom, MS

Sick baby in hospital — *Sviatlana Lazarenka / iStock*

The mental images that pop up when pregnant women consider vaccinations during pregnancy may affect their opinion and uptake of the vaccines, according to a study published in Social Science & Medicine.

Investigators from the University of Plymouth in the United Kingdom led a two-part longitudinal study involving 411 pregnant women seeking care at a large public hospital in Western Australia.

Participants completed a survey evaluating vaccine hesitancy and uptake during pregnancy for COVID-19, influenza, and pertussis (whooping cough), and researchers checked official immunization records at the end of pregnancy to see if they received the vaccines.

To determine vaccine- or disease-related mental imagery, such as infant illness or harm, the team asked the women questions about their risk perceptions and whether their mind conjured these images.

Many more received pertussis than other vaccines

In total, 38% of pregnant women reported mainly negative vaccine- and disease-related mental images formulated from personal experiences, the news, and social media.

A lot of research, including that done here in Plymouth, shows that mental imagery makes memories and future thoughts feel real.

Julie Ji, PhD

Beyond vaccination intention and anticipated regret, negative vaccine imagery was tied to greater vaccine hesitancy for those not yet vaccinated against flu and pertussis. In contrast, positive vaccine imagery, such as picturing antibodies passing through the umbilical cord, was independently linked to higher uptake likelihood and earlier vaccination, but for pertussis only. Mental imagery wasn’t associated with COVID-19 vaccine reluctance or uptake.

This pattern was seen even after considering participants’ general attitudes toward receiving government-recommended vaccines during pregnancy, suggesting that mental images illustrate how vaccine decisions are psychologically experienced rather than simply reflecting general vaccine attitudes.

By the end of pregnancy, women were most likely to receive the pertussis vaccine (82.1% vaccinated), followed by flu (60.1%) and COVID-19 (7.2%).

“A lot of research, including that done here in Plymouth, shows that mental imagery makes memories and future thoughts feel real,” lead author Julie Ji, PhD, said in a University of Plymouth news release. “These images can powerfully influence our emotions and beliefs, and motivate helpful or unhelpful behaviours.”

Quick takes: Fatal H5N6 avian flu case, cruise ship norovirus outbreak, dermatophilosis in MSM

News brief

Stephanie Soucheray, MA

The World Health Organization (WHO) has noted a fatal H5N6 infection in Chongqing Municipality, China. The patient, a 55-year-old woman, died after suffering severe pneumonia on May 3. According to the WHO, “She had purchased, slaughtered, and consumed poultry. Samples collected from a cutting board tested positive for influenza A (H5).” The first human H5N6 case was recorded in the region in 2014. Since then, 93 laboratory-confirmed cases, including 58 deaths, have been reported to WHO in the Western Pacific Region.
The Caribbean Princess cruise ship is now docked at Port Canaveral, Florida, after suffering a norovirus outbreak onboard. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 145 of 3,116 passengers were sickened onboard, as were 15 crew members. The most prominent symptoms were diarrhea and vomiting.
Rain rot rash, or dermatophilosis, is appearing on men who have sex with men in Europe. Though the skin disease is typically seen only in horses and other livestock, men presenting with the rash have appeared in France, Spain, and Germany in recent months, with no history of contact with animals. Last week in Emerging Infectious Diseases, authors detailed a closer examination of nine men in Barcelona diagnosed with dermatophilosis between December 2025 and March. Lesions were commonly located in sites exposed during sexual contact, the authors said, and eight of nine patients developed lesions shortly after visiting a sauna. "All cases in this series were mild and resolved easily without complications,” the authors said.