A new modeling study by researchers with the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that more than 5 million antimicrobial resistance (AMR)-related deaths could occur in the WHO's Western Pacific Region over the next decade.
The study, conducted by researchers with the WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control at the University of Hong Kong, used data from eight countries and one area in the region on the health impact (morbidity and mortality) and economic cost (gross domestic product [GDP] loss due to decreased work productivity) of infections caused by antibiotic-resistant bacteria compared with antibiotic-sensitive bacteria from 2010 through 2019.
The researchers focused on seven bacterial infections of importance for human health: methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Enterococcus faecalis, Haemophilus influenzae, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Streptococcus pneumoniae.
Because many countries in the region have limited AMR data, the researchers then extrapolated the data to other countries in the region based on the nearest GDP per capita and estimated the health impact and economic cost of AMR in each of the region's 37 countries and areas from 2020 to 2030.
The impacts are not distributed equally, and AMR is an especially serious threat for some of the poorest people and most marginalized populations in the Region.
The model estimated a worst-case scenario of 450,000 AMR-related deaths in 2020 and a projected cumulative total of 5.2 million AMR-related deaths across the region over the decade. The estimated regional AMR mortality rate is similar to regional mortality rates for kidney diseases, diabetes mellitus, liver cirrhosis, and breast cancer.
Patients with AMR infections were projected to spend 172 million extra days in the hospital. The AMR-related health cost was projected to reach US$ 148 billion.
"Despite the data limitations, the study provides compelling evidence for the potential health and economic costs of AMR in the Western Pacific Region," the researchers wrote. "The impacts are not distributed equally, and AMR is an especially serious threat for some of the poorest people and most marginalized populations in the Region."
The authors add that more and better-quality data are needed to understand the trajectory of AMR in the region and reduce the uncertainty around its impacts.