Decline in COVID reporting muddles tracking of global illness patterns

SARS-CoV-2

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Global cases and deaths continued to drop over the past 28 days, but the metrics don't accurately reflect infection rates because of the steady drop in testing and regular reporting from countries, the World Health Organization (WHO) said yesterday in its latest weekly update.

In the United States, hospitalizations and death from COVID—the country's main markers—dropped further this week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in its latest data.

Fewer countries report cases

Over the last 4 weeks, cases and deaths have declined across all six world regions, the WHO said in its weekly snapshot. However, it said reported cases don't accurately reflect infection rates, given reduced testing and scaled back reporting. Over the last month, only 59% of countries reported their cases, a proportion it says has consistently dropped since the middle of 2022.

Another factor that complicates current COVID activity tracking is retrospective reporting of cases and deaths. "Data presented in this report are therefore incomplete and should be interpreted in light of these limitations," the WHO said.

However, the update noted that some countries continue to report high disease burdens, including increasing cases and, more importantly, increasing hospitalizations and deaths, which may be more reliable indicators.

In China, where a COVID surge has been underway, the most recent report from national officials said activity has peaked, with severe cases and deaths at lower levels than earlier waves, according to the South China Morning Post. The average age of the people who died is 79, and about 90% of deaths occurred in people who have underlying health conditions. About 92% of cases were due to the Omicron XBB subvariant.

Elsewhere, Australian experts who commented on the country's latest spike in activity said the rise has been long and gradual, unlike more dramatic surges seen with earlier waves. Writing in Australia's ABC News, they said the pattern has been marked by shifts in XBB subvariants, each one a little more transmissible than the last, with XBB.1.16 currently on the rise.

WHO tracking of global variant activity shows that XBB.1.5 is still dominant, but between the end of April and the end of May, the proportion declined from 43.5% to 30% of sequences. Over the same period, the proportion of XBB.1.16—now reported from 69 countries—rose from 10.9% to 18%. Four other subvariants also showed rises, including XBB, XBB.1.9.1, XBB.1.9.2, and XBB.2.3.

US markers trend lower

In the United States, hospitalizations and deaths from COVID declined again last week, down 7.6% and 7.7% respectively, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said yesterday in its latest update.

Also, emergency department visits for COVID, which the CDC uses as an early marker, continue to decline and were down 15%. Nationally, test positivity was 4%, down 0.2% from the week before.

Biden formally announces new CDC director

In other US developments, President Joe Biden today officially announced the appointment of Mandy Cohen, MD, as the CDC's new director. The Washington Post had previewed the pick in a June 1 report.

"Dr. Cohen has been recognized by leaders from both parties for her ability find common ground and put complex policy into action," Biden said. "I look forward to working with Dr. Cohen as she leads our nation’s finest scientists and public health experts with integrity and transparency."

The current CDC Director Rochelle Walensky, MD, MPH, who had announced she will depart the agency at the end of June, said today in a statement on Cohen's appointment, "Her unique experience and accomplished tenure in North Carolina – along with her other career contributions – make her perfectly suited to lead CDC as it moves forward by building on the lessons learned from COVID-19 to create an organization poised to meet public health challenges of the future." 

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