New research projects increasing the US pediatric influenza vaccination rate to the Healthy People 2030 goal of 70% would avert more than 2.2 million outpatient visits, 30,494 hospitalizations, and 123 pediatric deaths during a high-incidence season, easing strain on health systems.
The findings, presented at the recent Pediatric Academic Societies (PAS) 2026 Meeting in Boston, highlight the potential consequences of the continued slide in pediatric flu vaccine uptake, such as increased healthcare visits and hospitalizations, said the authors, from flu vaccine maker CSL Seqirus.
Low vaccine uptake can speed flu spread among all ages
The modeling study was designed to estimate the effects of low flu vaccine coverage in children aged 6 months to 17 years.
It projected that if the current pediatric flu vaccination rate of about 50% continued during a season of high flu incidence more than 4.4 million outpatient visits, 59,000 hospitalizations, and 234 deaths could be expected, with occupancy of 14,000 hospital beds and 2,000 intensive care unit (ICU) beds at the seasonal peak.
During a season with low influenza circulation, a 50% pediatric flu vaccination rate would translate to roughly 1.5 million outpatient visits, 18,000 hospitalizations, and 70 deaths, with occupancy of 3,000 hospital beds and 457 ICU beds used at the peak of activity.