An analysis published in Contemporary Economic Policy suggests that COVID-19 indoor vaccine mandates in major US cities didn't increase weekly vaccination rates or reduce infections and deaths in adults or children, despite their success in countries such as Canada and France.
The authors, led by a Clemson University researcher, estimated the effect of mandates in nine major US cities on first-dose COVID-19 vaccine uptake, cases, and deaths. The included cities—New York City, San Francisco, New Orleans, Seattle, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Boston, Chicago, and Washington DC—issued indoor vaccine requirements in 2021 and 2022.
“Governments implemented a wide range of policies during the COVID-19 pandemic to encourage vaccination and reduce disease spread, including public information campaigns, monetary incentives, and various forms of vaccine mandates,” they wrote. “Among the most restrictive and controversial of these were indoor vaccine mandates, which required proof of vaccination to enter public indoor venues such as restaurants, bars, gyms, and theaters.”
City-level mandates easy to skirt
While vaccine mandates appeared to be effective in some cities, no consistent pattern of significant effects was identified. “Even when point estimates appear sizeable… the confidence intervals are wide and include both meaningful increases and decreases,” the authors wrote.
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